Happy Tuesday!

06 MAY 25

Headwinds or Tailwinds Update (HoT Weeklies): 25w19**: Fund Updates + Market Outlook + Question of the Week:

CWA Managed Funds: 

Carbonwolf Alpha, Fund Alpha Performance:

2023 = +167%

2024 = +102%

2025 YTD = +32.78%

Major Indices:

2025 YTD Performance:

QALM = Quantitative Algorithmic Leveraged Momentum

Winners and Losers Random ~3 QALM Trades

Observations:

Tailwinds:

+Mighty Megas. Megatech Company Microsoft jumped on a double-beat on its Earnings Report last week, becoming the largest company in the world by Market Cap eclipsing Apple, ~$3.2 Trillion versus $~3.1 Trillion, respectively.

Microsoft Earnings Highlights:

• EPS beat (net income +18% YoY)

• Revenue beat (sales +13% YoY)

• Azure revenue growth +33% YoY

• Fiscal Year 2026 CapEx to grow from Fiscal Year 2025

• Better-than-expected current quarter guidance

Meta Earnings Highlights:

• EPS beat (net income +35% YoY)

• Increased 2025 CapEx guidance range to $64 to $72 Billion

• In-line guide; some reduced spend from Asia e-commerce exporters

Megatech 2025 CapEx:

Mega-Cap Update

Microsoft now the most valuable company in the world valued at ~$3.209 Trillion versus Apple ~$3.173 Trillion -as of 01 MAY 25.

Visa CEO, Ryan McInerney: "Focusing on the U.S. in Q2 and through April 21, we have not seen any signs of overall consumer spending weakening."

Palantir CEO, Alex Karp: "This is a moment for the world to see how you actually do next-generation AI implementation. Our numbers show that the revolution is real, but you need specific and very particular products and ways of doing it to capture that value."

+Retail Semi-Resilience. The retail consumer industry seems to be torn on the subject of Tariffs. Some CEOs are still seeing strong demand in the U.S. Consumer, but hesitant about the upcoming volatility when Tariffs resume.

End of an Era. Legendary Investor and Market Maker Mentor Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway to step down from CEO this year. He will remain Chairman as of 01 JAN 2026. From 1965 to 2024, Berkshire Hathaway stock returned an astonishing ~+5,502,284%. Over the last 20 years, the legendary holding company generated ~+802.71% versus the S&P 500's +381.83% over the same period. See Chart1.

Among Buffett's many Market Philosophy Contributions:

• Value investing: Companies can be mispriced

• Contributed to Quality investing, companies with competitive advantages, moats, low leverage, strong management, strong cash flow

The 40,000+ crowd at the annual Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, upon hearing the news of Buffett's passing the CEO mantel to Abel gave the Legend a standing ovation for several minutes. See Chart2.

Amazon CEO, Andy Jassy: "We haven't seen any attenuation of demand yet. To some extent, we've seen some heightened buying in certain categories that may indicate stocking up in advance of any potential tariff impact. We also have not seen the average selling price of retail items appreciably go up yet."

Live Nation CEO, Michael Rapino: "Whether it's a festival on sale or a new tour or a show that went on sale, it's a complete sell-through and strong demand and beating last year's numbers. So we haven't seen a consumer pullback in any genre, pub, theater, stadium, amphitheater."

Instacart CEO, Fidji Simo: "We have not seen any unexpected changes in consumer behavior through April."

Dupont CEO, Lori Koch: "We continue to see strong order patterns through April consistent with our expectations regarding our strategic priorities."

Headwinds:

GDP Breakdown. U.S. GDP/economy contracted for the first time in 1Q 2025. This is the first time the leading economy has shrunk 0.3% (annualized) -since Q1 of 2022. A slowdown in consumer spending and a sharp decline in federal outlays also contributed to the weak GDP number amid Elon Musk's efforts at the Department of Government Efficiency. Accordingly, ISM Manufacturing is trending downward. See Chart3.

SPX Year-End Price Target Cuts

Contributions to GDP:

Stagnant April Jobs Report

Jobs at Risk

Apple CEO, Tim Cook: "Assuming the current global tariff rates, policies, and applications do not change for the balance of the quarter and no new tariffs are added. We estimate the impact to add $900 million to our costs… This estimate should not be used to make projections for future quarters as there are certain unique factors that benefit the June quarter."

NewEdge Wealth Chief Investment Officer, Cameron Dawson: "We are likely to see some tariff impact in May jobs data… Broader weakness is likely to materialize in late 2Q or early 3Q… This is likely delayed further by Tariff Pull Forward of demand."

Affordability and Tariffs. Despite the Tariffs not being in full-effect, the most countries, including the U.S. have seen a drop in shipping as it relates to the United States. About a week ago, Port of Los Angeles Director Gene Seroka told CNBC he expects to see a "precipitous drop in business at both the L.A. and Long Beach Ports due to the Trump Tariffs." A few days ago Port of Long Beach CEO Mario Cordero told the Daily Breeze that the drop-off may already be here.

Peak shipping season occurs in July, the ports usually starting noticing an increase in May container activity. However, "amid tariffs, including a 145% tariff on Chinese goods, this year is shaping up to be much slower," Cordero stated.

Port of Long Beach CEO, Mario Cordero: "It's a lack of clarity and what I've called 'radical' uncertainty… If you're a shipper and have products in China when there's a 145% tariff, you're going to want to wait if you believe this going to be mitigated in the months to come… In fact, arrivals next week at the Port of Los Angeles will be down (more than) 35%."

Consumer Expectations Plunge (also related See Chart4.)

Biggest 3-Month Declines

Snapshot of April Housing Market

• Active Listings +31% YoY

• Share with price reductions: 18%

• Income needed to afford a median-priced home: $114,000 versus $47,000 in 2019

Airbnb CEO, Brian Chesky: "In the US, we've seen relatively softer trends, which we believe is largely driven by broader economic uncertainty."

Berkshire Hathaway Chair and CEO, Warren Buffett: "Trade should not be a weapon… Abel should become Berkshire CEO at year-end."

Sentiment. Investor Sentiment ending 30 APR 25:

Tesla CEO, Elon Musk: "DOGE is a way of life, like Buddhism… Buddha isn't alive anymore. You wouldn't ask the question: 'Who would lead Buddhism?"

McDonald's CEO, Chris Kempczinski: "Actual industry traffic fell more than we anticipated in several of our large markets, including the U.S… Traffic from the low income consumer cohort was down nearly double digits versus the prior year quarter…"

SPX Technicals.

Macro Data

Tariff turmoil has kept SPX price action from keeping and staying above the 200-EMA, despite rallying from the April nadir. SPX price action needs to reclaim and hold above the 200-EMA before 2025 bull market can resume.

All-important FOMC decision and guide tomorrow. Chief Powell's commentary will be critical to setting Investor Sentiment Expectations.

Question of the Week:

How low will US Crude Oil prices go to this year? Will it hit $40 per Barrel?

Disciplined Alpha,

MFA

**All of the above Funds are CLOSED to the public. These proprietary Hedge Fund Updates are for informational purposes only. Complex Derivatives, Futures, Algorithmic Trading can involve significant risks. Our past performance does not guarantee your future results. Always do your own due diligence, research and suitability before investing or trading.

Happy Tuesday!

29 APR 25

Headwinds or Tailwinds Update (HoT Weeklies): 25w18**: Fund Updates + Market Outlook + Question of the Week:

CWA Managed Funds: 

Carbonwolf Alpha, Fund Alpha Performance:

2023 = +167%

2024 = +102%

2025 YTD = +32.09%

Major Indices:

2025 YTD Performance:

QALM = Quantitative Algorithmic Leveraged Momentum

Winners and Losers Random ~3 QALM Trades

Observations:

Tailwinds:

+Tactically Bullish. According to a recent Fed report, the banking sector remains sound and resilient overall. Further, valuations remain high despite declines in asset prices amid market volatility for the broader Market. See Chart1.

The Economic Outlook from a Regional Bank Perspective -source: Valley Bank CEO, Ira Robbins:

• Commercial real estate clients are largely positive about future economic prospects and moving forward on development

• Auto clients have seen a short surge in sales as consumers pull forward purchases, yet are mixed on the long-term implications

• Resiliency of small business owners is being underestimated in forecasting impacts of tariffs.

Alphabet Double Beat Q1 Earnings Report

• Net income +46% year-over-year. Overall revenue beat +12% year-over-year

• YouTube ad revenue and Google Cloud revenue slight miss

• Increased dividend authorized additional $7 Billion in buybacks

Fundstrat Head of Research and Managing Partner, Tom Lee: "We realize this is counterintuitive given the lack of earnings visibility, but the likely reason is equities collapsed from 2/18 to 4/7, and this waterfall decline reset positioning and sentiment in a way to allow for a V-shaped recovery."

JPMorgan Trading Desk View: "While we think this rally could span multiple weeks, this is not an all-clear for markets. Unfortunately, we think we are still one to two months away from seeing the negative impact of the trade war on the real economy. "

BMO Capital Markets Chief Investment Strategist, Brian Belski: "Risk aversion has quickly become excessive and tends to be followed by solid S&P 500 gains… Should latest levels in these indicators prove to be longer-term trough levels, average performance is even better."

+Trump Tough Teeter-Totter Talk. The broader Markets surged higher last week after Trump stated publicly, "I have no intention to fire [Fed Chair Powell]." Additionally, the Trump administration added fuel to the optimism by publicly considering slashing tariffs on Chinese imports, in some cases more than half. Last week, President Trump said the U.S. met with China, but declined to identify the individuals involved. Further adding, "I've spoken with [President] Xi many times." Despite recent gains, the broader Markets have much ground to recover. See Chart2.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent fortified sentiment by saying he had a "very successful" trade meeting with South Korea. They brought their "A game."

Shift4 Incoming CEO, Taylor Lauber: "We simply don't see that, and this isn't a function of our growth - this is just same-store sales. Looking at a restaurant that has been with us for 2+ years and they're doing about the same as they did a year ago…"

Headwinds:

-Corporate Tariffs Bracing. Shipping giant UPS to cut ~20,000 jobs on likely lower Amazon shipments despite profit beating estimates, according to Reuters. Amazon stated, "The team that runs our ultra-low-cost Amazon haul store has considered listing import charges on certain products. This was never a consideration for the main Amazon site, and nothing has been implemented on any Amazon properties." Statements like these imply that Trump Tariffs have not yet been fully priced-in.

Corporate Chief Outlook:

UPS CEO, Carol Tome: "Over 95% of those customers told us that they expect to maintain the current business model, while the rest are considering several options, including trade shifts, transportation mode shifts, or exiting the business. Most of these customers are also telling us that they are letting inventory levels sell off, which will lead to lower shipping activity at least for now."

Hilton CEO, Christopher Nassetta: "Broader macro uncertainty intensified in March, which pressured demand, particularly across leisure."

Adidas CEO, Bjorn Gulden: "In a 'normal world' with this strong quarter and a strong order book, and in general, a very positive attitude towards Adidas, we would have increased our outlook for the full year both for revenues and operating profit. The uncertainty regarding the US tariffs has currently put a stop to this."

Honeywell CEO, Vimal Kapur: "Although our business has solid momentum heading into Q2, the economic climate has become increasingly uncertain in recent weeks."

Consumer Slight Hesitation. The housing market is currently bifurcated: new home sales are climbing from its low, but existing home sales are down. Sellers are seeing buyers pressured by higher rates, but not so much as to destabilize home prices. See Chart3. Further, U.S. Upper-Income Consumer Outlook now lower than in 2023. See Chart4.

CNBC Poll of Upper-Income Earners:

• 69% say Tariffs are causing financial stress

• 33% are delaying purchases

• 14% are stocked up

• 52% No change

Actual Product Price Increases and Trade Dynamics

Week-over-Week -source: Telsey Advisory Group

Blank Sailings (Empty Shipping Container Ships):

• Increased blank sailing suggests tariffs are already reducing trade volumes between the U.S. and China

• Q1 GDP growth will show a stall with the drag from net trade offsetting strong domestic demand growth.

Morgan Stanley, Chief U.S. Economist: "We expect payrolls rose by 160,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged. No sign of a sudden slowdown."

HSBC slashes its Year-End SPX target from 6,700 to 5,600 citing: "…Incorporating the impact of slower U.S. growth and tariff pressure on earnings. Nearer term, the market should trade between recession and stagflation fears until the Fed cuts and tariff turmoil subsides."

JPMorgan House View: "A worrying decoupling of U.S.-China trade in response to 145% tariff rates imposed earlier this month now looks to be underway, and we expect the damage to build in coming weeks and months."

Sentiment. Investor Sentiment ending 23 APR 25:

Zoe Financial Founder and CEO, Andres Garcia: "Economically speaking, some damage is already done… It is likely to get worse before it gets better, affecting earnings negatively… Decline in containers from China to the US will start to show up in higher inflation in the coming months."

SPX Technicals.

Macro Data

Super Micro Computer got punished after hours today after the company cut its quarterly forecast. Given that SMCI is in the lead-industry of semiconductors, this could be ominous for the rest of the bigger players in the Chips space.

Gold /GC is also just off its All-time highs, likely consolidating and then continuing to grind higher as Tariffs get re-instituted. Watch for Megatech guidance this week for any sense of weakness through the rest of 2025.

Question of the Week:

Will Gold /GC break $4,000 per ounce this year?

Disciplined Alpha,

MFA

**All of the above Funds are CLOSED to the public. These proprietary Hedge Fund Updates are for informational purposes only. Complex Derivatives, Futures, Algorithmic Trading can involve significant risks. Our past performance does not guarantee your future results. Always do your own due diligence, research and suitability before investing or trading.

Happy Tuesday!

22 APR 25

Headwinds or Tailwinds Update (HoT Weeklies): 25w17**: Fund Updates + Market Outlook + Question of the Week:

CWA Managed Funds: 

Carbonwolf Alpha, Fund Alpha Performance:

2023 = +167%

2024 = +102%

2025 YTD = +30.01%

Major Indices:

2025 YTD Performance:

QALM = Quantitative Algorithmic Leveraged Momentum

Winners and Losers Random ~3 QALM Trades

Observations:

Tailwinds:

+Tariff Clarity Optimism. Clarity around the ultimate path of tariffs, especially regarding China, is needed to avoid a recession. Tax cuts would help, but tariff negotiations are still key to reducing uncertainty. According to the White House, trade officials are meeting with 34 different countries this week.

The net effect is that the Markets have yet to see a full flush out or Panic-sell event that generally characterizes a bottom is forming. On the contrary, Megabanks are seeing a renewed interest in investing and trading. Total Annual Option/Derivative Trading Volume is also seeing surges in activity. See Chart1.

Charles Schwab Q1 Financial Highlights:

• Record net revenue: +18% Year-over-Year to $5.6 Billion

• Core net new assets: +44% YoY, reaching approximately $138 Billion

• Brokerage accounts: +8% YoY

  • Roughly a gain of $1.2M new accounts for the quarter

• Total client assets: +9% year-over-year to $9.93 Trillion

Optimistic Scenario S&P 500 Pricing based on Earning Season's Results

Short-Dated options saw a +23% jump in April for zero-day to expiry SPX options. These are designed to trade intra-day. Although the cost is lower to buy, it's higher risk. This implies the appetite for risk is still there.

European Central Bank President, Christine LaGarde: "Either we cut or pause, but we will be data dependent to the extreme… There is so much joint interest between economies of the United States and Europe."

U.S. President, Donald Trump: "Very confident [I] can make trade deal with European Union."

+Glittering Gold. At a recent high of $3460 per troy ounce, it's up approximately 30% this year - soundly trancing stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin holders year-to-date. Over the past 20 years, SPDR Gold Shares, an exchange-traded fund, has surged over 630% -that's 85 points more than the SPDR S&P 500, which tracks shares of the biggest U.S. companies.

Demand among individuals for gold bars and coins has been surging, with some dealers experiencing sporadic shortages. Gold ETFs were bucking the trend, but flows have been solidly positive since last summer, including recently in China. All told, there is now an estimated $4 Trillion worth of gold held by central banks and $5 Trillion by private investors. Calculated against $260 Trillion for all financial assets, including stocks, bonds, cash, and alternatives. This works out to a global gold portfolio allocation of 3.5% -a new record.

The demand for the glittering and luminous metal has been ravenous since 2022. Since the US and many of its allies at the time placed sweeping sanctions on Russia, China went on a bullion shopping spree. Then other central banks followed suit. Now in 2025, investors are nervous about President Donald Trump's tariffs, his brow-beating of the Federal Reserve Chairman over interest rates and blow-out U.S. deficits.

Bank of America Securities: "Central banks have room for much more gold buying. And that China's insurance companies are likely to dabble too."

BlackRock Portfolio Manager, Russ Koesterich: "Gold has proven itself as a store of value and deserves a 2% to 4% weighting for most investors… I think it's a tough call to say, "Would you chase it here?" "There have been some pullbacks. Those might represent a good opportunity, particularly for people who don't have any exposure."

Headwinds:

-Global Teeth-Gritting. While many Brokerage Houses are loathe to say Recession is here, many are continuing to lower growth expectations in light of the active de-globalization currently happening, at least over the short-term. Events like the aforementiond have been driving the U.S. 2-year/10-year spread higher. See Chart3.

The International Monetary Fund slashed the U.S. growth forecast for 2025 to 1.8% citing "Trade tensions." Additionally, the International Monetary Fund revised its 2025 China GDP growth estimate to 4.0% from 4.6% in January.

AWS Data Center Pause? According to a Wells Fargo Research Note, "We heard from several industry sources that AWS has paused a portion of its leasing discussions… It's not clear the magnitude of the pause, but the positioning is similar to what we've heard recently from Microsoft."

Barclays Head of U.S. Equity Linked Strategies, Venu Krishna: "Equities have yet to meaningfully recover from the April 2nd tariff shock… Defensive sectors outperform during the peak-to-trough phase of a bear market."

U.S. Secretary, Scott Bessent: "Tariff standoff with China is unsustainable… Expects de-escalation."

Turtle Creek Wealth Advisors Chief Market Strategist, David Spika: "Uncertainty around tariffs and the Fed's independence is driving the recent market volatility… The announcement of a 90-day tariff pause showed how much upside exists if the right message is communicated… Aggressive Fed rate cuts appear unlikely due to inflationary impacts of tariffs, unless we go into a recession."

Superpower Posturing. Last week, Trump renewed calls for an interest rate cut. He said rates would be lower if Fed Chief Powell "understood what he was doing."

President Trump went on to say: "Pre-emptive cuts in interest rates are being called for by many. With energy costs way down, food prices, (including Biden's egg disaster!) substantially lower, and most other "things" trending down, there is virtually No Inflation. With these costs trending so nicely downward just what I predicted they would do, there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates NOW."

"Europe has already "lowered" seven times. Powell has always been "To Late," except when it came to the Election period when he lowered in order to help Sleepy Joe Biden, and later Kamala, get elected. How did that work out?"

Needless to say, Trump is not a fan of Powell -despite handpicking Powell in 2017.

This goes beyond politics, however, getting rid of Powell in such a dramatic fashion would upset the bond market, risk premiums would rise sharply as investors questioned the central bank's independence, and long-term interest rates would surge.

China is not flinching. According to CNBC, "China vows retaliation against countries that follow U.S. calls to isolate Beijing."

Recently Bank of America analysts warned the market on Amazon's China exposure:

• ~30% of online GMV

• ~15% of advertising

• Chinese advertisers spent $8B with Amazon in 2024.

U.S. President Trump: "The businessmen who criticize tariffs are bad at business but really bad at politics. They don't understand or realize that I am the greatest friend that American capitalism has ever had!"

Apollo Partner and Chief Economist, Torsten Slok: "If tariffs remain at current levels, there is a 90% probability of a recession in 2025… We will also have a Voluntary Trade Reset recession in 2025… [U.S.] GDP could fall 4%."

BMO Managing Director and Head of U.S. Rates Strategy: "At a moment in which the administration has already instilled ever higher levels of uncertainty into the economic outlook, any attempt to remove Powell will add to the downward pressure on U.S. assets."

Sentiment. Investor Sentiment ending 16 APR 25:

UBS House View: "We believe the risk of a more severe economic downturn is now more limited, and upgrade U.S. equities to Attractive."

Bank of America Global Securities Chief Investment Strategist, Michael Hartnett: "Investors are extremely 'emotionally' bearish, but not extremely 'physically' bearish, i.e., institutional and private clients have not sold hard; that changes if U.S. tariff/tax/rate cuts don't materialize…"

Citi U.S. Equity Strategist, Scott Chronert: "This may be the first bear market specifically triggered by U.S. presidential actions… Margin pressures will be a more salient influence on equity markets… Corporate earnings pressure precedes an economic deceleration, if not recession."

SPX Technicals.

Macro Data

Roughly two-thirds of the S&P 500 stocks are down 20% or more from the 52-week highs -placing those stocks in Bear Market Territory. SPX needs to reclaim price action above its 200-EMA or risk further overall downward momentum. Watch for the Megatech Companies' guidance before making greater than near-term trades.

Question of the Week:

Who will lower Tariffs first? The U.S? Or, China?

Disciplined Alpha,

MFA

**All of the above Funds are CLOSED to the public. These proprietary Hedge Fund Updates are for informational purposes only. Complex Derivatives, Futures, Algorithmic Trading can involve significant risks. Our past performance does not guarantee your future results. Always do your own due diligence, research and suitability before investing or trading.

Happy Tuesday!

15 APR 25

Headwinds or Tailwinds Update (HoT Weeklies): 25w16**: Fund Updates + Market Outlook + Question of the Week:

CWA Managed Funds: 

Carbonwolf Alpha, Fund Alpha Performance:

2023 = +167%

2024 = +102%

2025 YTD = +31.13%

Major Indices:

2025 YTD Performance:

QALM = Quantitative Algorithmic Leveraged Momentum

Winners and Losers Random ~3 QALM Trades

Observations:

Tailwinds:

+Record Wednesday. Last Wednesday, which should have been the beginning for many of the Trump Tariffs to go into full effect was thankfully interrupted by a single post by President Trump on Truth Social: "I have authorized a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs." This was fortified by U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent: "[Tariffs] going down to 10% baseline Tariffs on all countries except China."

Despite the outsized volatility, retail traders are buying the dip -with the S&P 500 seeing it's best week since November 2023. See Chart1. And, Chart2.

After the "Tariff Pause" Market Outlook

Morgan Stanley: "Pause lowers downside risk, prolongs uncertainty"

Citi: "Pausing reciprocal tariffs excluding China does not mean the U.S. economy has avoided a slowdown in growth and rise in inflation."

Tariff Exemptions:

• Smartphones

• Computers

• Solar Cells

• Flat Screen TVs

• Flash Drives

• Memory Cards

Fundstrat Global Advisors Founder and Managing Director, Tom Lee: "Provides companies with a new narrative to guide expectations; now a credible excuse to cut guidance without triggering panic... The administration may argue that tariffs can work as a negotiation tool; temporary tariff pause introduces the possibility of a longer-term shift."

Sanctuary Wealth Chief Investment Strategist, Mary Ann Bartels: "Expect new highs within the next 12 months because the tariff outlook has improved… Feel confident the low is set on the S&P 500 at 4835… Favor Salesforce ("CRM"), Chenier ("LNG"), and Gold ("GLD")."

Former Goldman Sachs Asset Management Chair, Lord Jim O'Neill: "Germany is loosening it's 'debt brake' and allowing for sorely needed investment… China is said to be studying its options for stimulating domestic consumption… Now is the time to pursue new, coordinated strategies to boost domestic demand."

+Big Banks Beat. A new Earnings Season kicked off last Friday with the Big Banks leading the way. Another strong quarter for the Megabanks with Bank of America and Citi posting better-than-expected results.

Big Banks' Trading Gains

Janney Montgomery Scott Director of Research, Chris Marinac: "Results should reflect the same trends we have seen so far due to uncertainty in 2Q25 and beyond… Trends include lower funding costs, stable net charge-offs, and modest reserve building… 2025 guidance may be trimmed, especially for higher credit reserve building and less loan growth."

Barclays House View: "It is hard to think that there will be a liquid and deep alternative to U.S. credit to diversify away from more structurally… Still, even small such moves in reserves over a short period of time can have abnormal price effects."

Headwinds:

-Death Cross. Market technicians typically interpret it as a sign that a correction could be growing into a deeper, darker downtrend. The death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average of an asset or index dips below its 200-day moving average. This will be the first death cross for the S&P 500 since March 2022.

A death cross has also already appeared for the Russell 2000 and Megatech Tesla. Historically, the SPX, on average, has been higher three months, six months, and twelve months later. Nearly two-thirds of S&P 500 stocks are still down ~20% or more from 52-week highs.

Foreign Ownership. At the end of 2024, ~$33 Trillion of dollar-based stocks and bonds were owned by foreign interests. See Chart3.

• China's holdings of U.S. Mortgage Backed Securities, as of December 2024 decreased ~-20% year-over-year.

• The forced restructuring of the U.S. economy via Tariffs may adversely affect this important investment mix

According to Paul Ciana, Chief Technical Strategist at Bank of America Securities: "One critical tell will be whether the 200-day moving average at the close has fallen over the past five trading days. If it has, it could signal that stocks have more room to drift lower in the immediate future."

According to Dow Jones data, more recent death crosses have painted a mixed picture about where the S&P 500 might be headed next. The index was lower one year after its most recent death cross on March 14, 2022, but stocks were up by 50% over the same time frame following the death cross on March 30, 2020.

TD Cowen President, Jeffrey Solomon: "Expecting three rate cuts this year, assuming tariffs don't go fully back into effect… Looks like damage has been done, and the economy is already slowing… US recession on the horizon."

RBC Capital Markets Managing Director, Lori Calvasina: "One of the big concerns we have at the moment is that the upcoming reporting season seems a little bit like a box of (potentially bittersweet) chocolates to us. -we aren't sure what we're going to get."

Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Executive Director, Monica Guerra: "Elevated effective tariff rate likely to fan inflationary tailwinds… Continued market volatility not over… Look to Trump on messaging. Don't be swayed by advisor and cabinet messaging."

-Tariff Turbulence. Trump's Tariffs policies have confused many Market Participants. Originally, touted as "no exceptions" is now a hodgepodge of thrown together temporary rules swayed by any number of variables.

Last Friday saw Tariff exemptions issued by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency:

• 20 product categories, including smartphones

• 125% Tariff on Chinese Goods

• 10% Tariffs on most other countries

• 20% "Fentanyl" Tariff on all Chinese Goods

The Tariffs, existing and the spectre of future ones, are fueling fears of higher inflation expectations as well as unemployment increasing. See Chart4.

Market Cap Losses for the Magnificent 7

From "Liberation Day" to 10 April:

Economic Commentary from MegaBank CEOs:

Wells Fargo CEO, Charlie Scharf: "We expect continued volatility and uncertainty and are prepared for a slower economic environment in 2025."

JPMorgan CEO, Jamie Dimon: "The economy is facing considerable turbulence."

Morgan Stanley CEO, Ted Pick: "Economists are telling us the risk of recession has materially increased, but the consensus today is softer, not negative growth inflation."

BlackRock CEO, Larry Fink: "Uncertainty and anxiety about the future of markets and the economy are dominating client conversations… In the short run, I'm petrified at some of these issues."

Retaliation Round 3? China raises Tariffs again on U.S. Goods to 125% from 84%, effective 12 April. The Tariffs will cover all U.S. Goods. The Chinese Commerce Ministry stated firmly: "China will ignore Trump's 'Numbers Game…'" Further, the Commerce Ministry said: "U.S. Goods are not marketable at these levels."

Sentiment. Investor Sentiment ending 09 APR 25:

Evercore Founder, Roger Altman: "Market and economic turbulence is nowhere near over… Many market observers see this unusual pattern and believe it signifies a diminished appetite for U.S. Treasuries… Two of the largest economies in the world declaring economic war on each other is just destabilizing."

Goldman Sachs Global Head of Hedge Fund Coverage, Tony Pasquariello: "…A related point in the context of traditional 60/40 strategies recent weeks have demonstrated the lack of insurance afforded by the bond market. This is a sea change from the correlation regime that dominated most of the past two decades."

SPX Technicals.

Macro Data

Gold hit its 21st intraday record high this year last week. However, the Silver to Gold ratio has spiked in favor of Gold. This has historically signified that, more often than not, the higher-risk Silver buyers are selling in order to "go big" in the safer, more stable Gold market. Typically, this type of behavior precedes a recession. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs increased their Year-End Forecast of the shiny yellow metal to $3,700/oz.

Although the Tariff war is highlighting people's short-term views on the Markets, the majority bearish sentiment could propel the SPX up another ~+5% over the near-term.

Question of the Week:

Will the S&P 500 end April higher or lower than today's close ($5,396.63)? Why?

Disciplined Alpha,

MFA

**All of the above Funds are CLOSED to the public. These proprietary Hedge Fund Updates are for informational purposes only. Complex Derivatives, Futures, Algorithmic Trading can involve significant risks. Our past performance does not guarantee your future results. Always do your own due diligence, research and suitability before investing or trading.

Happy Tuesday!

08 APR 25

Headwinds or Tailwinds Update (HoT Weeklies): 25w15**: Fund Updates + Market Outlook + Question of the Week:

CWA Managed Funds: 

Carbonwolf Alpha, Fund Alpha Performance:

2023 = +167%

2024 = +102%

2025 YTD = +24.85%

Major Indices:

2025 YTD Performance:

QALM = Quantitative Algorithmic Leveraged Momentum

Winners and Losers Random ~3 QALM Trades

Observations:

Tailwinds:

+March Jobs. The Nonfarm payrolls came in higher slightly higher-than-expected. Although, this is a lagging indicator, it does show the underlying strength of the U.S. economy prior to the Tariffs was robust. The Fed does look at this data, but will need to see substantial weakness before acting. They historically don't act pre-emptively and Policy uncertainty limits their flexibility. Despite the extreme turbulence caused by Tariffs, foreign investment of U.S. Treasury Securities remains high, at least for now. See Chart1.

March Highlights:

• Nonfarm payroll employment 228,000 vs. 140,000 estimate

• Unemployment rate 4.2% vs 4.1% estimate

• Average hourly earnings on private nonfarm payrolls +$0.09 ($36.00)

Key Gainers

Fed Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell: "Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well-anchored… Economy in good shape… policy still moderately restrictive… Tariff inflation could be temporary or more persistent."

Goldman Sachs Sung Cho: "[Semis] Have led the downturn, but end-markets (e.g. AI) will be more resilient than market is discounting… Have been adding to this group -particularly Broadcom, and Marvell; also like Texas Instruments."

Damped Spring Advisors CEO, Andy Constan: "Unlikely to see hate selling by foreign investors… U.S. debt market in midst of 'rip-roaring rally.'"

+Gold Guard. The non-tarnishing shiny metal has seen inventories skyrocket since the start of 2025. Gold ETF inflows since 01 January have increased to ~$12.3 Billion versus ~$1.6 Billion in the entirety of 2024. These inflows to gold have largely sped up due to Tariff uncertainties. See Chart2.

Gold Price Forecasts

Megatech Valuations Forward P/E

BMO Capital Markets Chief Investment Strategist: "Uncertain times require discipline, not reaction… Fundamentals are not decaying toward demise… Key economic indicators are not flashing recession."

Headwinds:

-Slashed Sentiments. Monday saw whipsaw volatility with the Mag 7 collectively snapping up and down ~10% in a single session. See Chart3. The massive downward momo forced Wall Street Houses to release downward revisions on SPX year-end targets -and that of recession probabilities.

Revised Wall Street Targets.

Recession Probability Changes

Doubleline Capital Founder, Jeffrey Gundlach: "Wouldn't deploy cash yet.. Looking for 4,500 on the S&P ever since we broke down earlier in year."

-Trump Tariff Turbulence. The Trump administration is also divided about Tariffs. Special Government Employee and Tesla Chief Elon Musk calling out Navarro, the economist whom Trump is leaning his Tariff Policies against.

Musk outed Peter Navarro today: "Navarro is truly a moron. What he says here is demonstrably false… Tesla has the most American-made cars. Navarro is dumber than a sack of bricks… Navarro is truly a moron. Dumber than a sack of bricks." Musk even renamed Navarro: "*Peter Retarrdo"

U.S. Tariffs to Apparel Imports

China Stake-Raising. According to the White House, "104% tariffs on China effective tonight at midnight." This retaliatory move to China's retaliatory move is having a hardening effect on China. In contrast, to many countries who are choosing to open negotiations, China's Ministry of Commerce responded: "The US's threat to escalate tariffs on China is a grave mistake on top of an existing one which once again exposes the U.S.'s blackmail nature. China will never accept this. If the U.S. insists on its own way, China will fight till the end."

President Trump responded with: "China also wants to make a deal badly, but they don't know how to get it started. We are waiting for their call. It will happen!"

The additional Tariffs completely erased the morning gap up of roughly ~+4.6% of Nasdaq gains.

JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon: "The quicker this issue is resolved, the better, because some of the negative effects increase cumulatively over time and would be hard to reverse… In the short run, I see this as one large additional straw on the camel's back… The significant and somewhat unprecedented forces cause us to remain very cautious."

Sentiment. Investor Sentiment ending 02 APR 25:

"Big Short" Investor, Steve Eisman on Weakness on Street: "It's all about politics… Market not rational… Wrong time to be hero… But not another financial crisis."

Bridgewater Associates (Largest Hedge Fund in the World) Former Chief and Billionaire Investor, Ray Dalio: "We are seeing a classic breakdown of the major monetary, political, and geopolitical orders. This sort of breakdown occurs only about once in a lifetime, but they have happened many times in history when similar unsustainable conditions were in place."

SPX Technicals.

Macro Data

From a 30,000 foot-view the SPX's 200-Week Moving Average is danger-close to being broken. The SPX needs to hold above the ~4674 area, or else more selling may turn to sheer panic. See Chart4. SPX is in technical correction territory. The Nasdaq and the Russell are now in Bear Market territory. Multiple days of the VIX closing above ~40 handle are very rare and imply a crisis that demands immediate policy response, historically.

Question of the Week:

Who will back down first in the Tariff game of chicken? The U.S.? Or, China?

Disciplined Alpha,

MFA

**All of the above Funds are CLOSED to the public. These proprietary Hedge Fund Updates are for informational purposes only. Complex Derivatives, Futures, Algorithmic Trading can involve significant risks. Our past performance does not guarantee your future results. Always do your own due diligence, research and suitability before investing or trading.

Happy Tuesday!

01 APR 25

Headwinds or Tailwinds Update (HoT Weeklies): 25w14**: Fund Updates + Market Outlook + Question of the Week:

CWA Managed Funds: 

Carbonwolf Alpha, Fund Alpha Performance:

2023 = +167%

2024 = +102%

2025 YTD = +26.11%

Major Indices:

2025 YTD Performance:

QALM = Quantitative Algorithmic Leveraged Momentum

Winners and Losers Random ~3 QALM Trades

Observations:

Tailwinds:

+Gold Bugs Gain. The most active gold futures contract rose 19.3% for the first quarter after settling at $3150.30 on Monday -Marking its best performance since the third quarter of 1986 when it gained 24%, gold has now hit 18 closing highs in 2025 alone. See Chart1.

Gold Facts -source: Bank of America

• Last week saw $3.2 Billion flow into gold

• Daily record of $2.2 Billion

• Bank of America upped gold target to $3,500 per ounce

Demand is coming from central banks of countries like China, which are buying up the non-tarnishing metals to lower their exposure to the US dollar. This is especially important after the freezing of Russian central bank assets, which allowed the dollar to become a potential arm-twisting lever. Gold is also among the top sales categories in places like Costco, though physically backed by exchange-traded funds, has also seen a rise in assets under management.

Silver also is on record-breaking pace, hitting highs not seen since 2012.

UBS Analyst, Daniel Major: "Gold stocks are finally working. Will it continue…? Theoretically, when gold moves higher, gold miners should outperform given the potential for growth and dividend yields. But that has not been the case given persistent pressure to replace the depleting and growth production on miners while managing inflation on expenditures. "

+Liberation Day Bottom? Currently, Jobless claims remain low. Further, many institutions have de-risked significantly. Market participants are eagerly awaiting greater visibility post 02 APR 25, Liberation Day announcements. That greater clarity could be the catalyst the bulls need to attempt to correct course to the upside.

Private Credit. Blackrock CEO, Larry Fink: "Private credit assets are projected to more than double by the end of this decade, yet many individual investors aren't able to participate in the growth. Even some larger institutional investors have trouble building a portfolio that allocates these assets the way they want." See Chart2.

Fundstrat Capital CIO and Co-Founder, Tom Lee: "Risk/Reward is attractive here... Due to anxiety over economy and markets from tariff uncertainty... Odds of V-Shaped bounce after April 2nd are very high... Investors have turned 'hopeless' and 'fearful...' This is why stocks are so tumultuous... And why investment opportunities are emerging."

Banrion Capital Management, CEO Shana Sissel: "For long-term investors, this environment presents an opportunity to buy high-quality names at more attractive valuations… While not aiming to call the bottom, this is a time to consider adding to positions where fundamentals remain intact."

Headwinds:

-Mag 7 to Lag 7? Megatech companies have dominated much of the attention over the last few years. The U.S. tech giants are fairly rapidly becoming more capital intensive than they have been historically -this makes the stakes higher for them to forecast their futures accurately.

Mag 7 Obstacles:

• Generative AI narrative losing momentum

• Lower confidence in Megatech earnings

• Tech showing negative correlation to defensive sectors

The Broader Markets have suffered as a result of the Mag 7's comedown from the recent all-time highs. The Nasdaq has shed ~53% of last year's gain. And, the S&P 500 has lost ~31% of last year's gains showing a potential change in overall momentum. See Chart3.

Goldman Sachs recently cut the S&P 500 Outlook again to the downside:

• Near-term (3 months), the S&P 500 index will return -5% to $5,300

• 12-month view, index will return +6% to $5,900

• Slowing growth, rising uncertainty, higher risk premium, and lower price-to-earnings multiple

S&P 500 Target Revisions

Zoe Financial Founder, Andres Garcia-Amaya: "If tariffs are not as severe as originally expected, the U.S market can see a relief rally… Yes, there's tariff uncertainty and decline in consumer sentiment, but the market is always climbing the wall of worry… Ultimately, what drives stocks in the long term is earnings, and MAG7 earnings revisions seem to have bottomed."

-Trump Tariff Turbulence. Tomorrow is "Liberation Day" and the Markets participants are torn -pushing many investors to take a "wait and see" approach post Liberation Day clarity. Consumer Confidence has steadily declined since the beginning of 2025. See Chart4.

Partial Tariff Timeline:

In Effect:

Scheduled for 02 April:

Scheduled for 02 May:

Goldman Sachs House View: "Now see a 12-month recession probability of 35%. The upgrade from our previous 20% estimate reflects our lower growth baseline, the sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence and statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies."

Banrion Capital Management, CEO Shana Sissel: "Tariff concerns are part of a broader trend of weakening economic data and rising macro uncertainty… The risk of stagflation remains elevated, considered a worst-case scenario for the Fed… Recent employment data added to concerns, and while markets have rebounded, the risk is not fully priced in."

Raymond James Managing Director, Ed Mills: "Continue to expect that specifics will likely remain under active negotiation up until they are announced… Scope of tariffs will be determined by balance Trump is willing to strike between aggressiveness and legal defensibility… Reports of a push to go bigger with universal tariffs contrast with Trump describing pending tariffs as lenient."

Sentiment. Investor Sentiment ending 26 MAR 25:

Evercore Founder and Chairman, Roger Altman: "Very high uncertainty invariably causes hesitation… Markets and businesses always dislike negative surprises… Number one economic issue is the health of the consumer."

Yardeni Research Founder, Ed Yardeni: "Recession, stagflation expectation: 35% leaning toward 40%... S&P 500 year-end price target, $6,400… Think we are in a bottoming process around these levels."

SPX Technicals.

Macro Data

It's likely anything less than universal tariffs for all countries will result in a minor upswing -if clarity outweighs confusion around U.S. tariff policy. Look for SPX to hold above $5,600 this week or else Bears may take more significant control.

Question of the Week:

Will 02 April "Liberation Day" Tariffs be applied to All countries? Or, just the Top 20?

Disciplined Alpha,

MFA

**All of the above Funds are CLOSED to the public. These proprietary Hedge Fund Updates are for informational purposes only. Complex Derivatives, Futures, Algorithmic Trading can involve significant risks. Our past performance does not guarantee your future results. Always do your own due diligence, research and suitability before investing or trading.

Happy Tuesday!

25 MAR 25

Headwinds or Tailwinds Update (HoT Weeklies): 25w13**: Fund Updates + Market Outlook + Question of the Week:

CWA Managed Funds: 

Carbonwolf Alpha, Fund Alpha Performance:

2023 = +167%

2024 = +102%

2025 YTD = +27.11%

Major Indices:

2025 YTD Performance:

QALM = Quantitative Algorithmic Leveraged Momentum

Winners and Losers Random ~3 QALM Trades

Observations:

Tailwinds:

+Market Rebound. The SPX and the Nasdaq Futures closed above the 200-SMA for the first time in about two weeks yesterday -challenging its previous downtrend. See Chart1. The source of the bounce seems to be directly related to the hope that the Administration's Tariff stance generates more clarity or its durations are shorter-than-expected. These hopes are bolstered by statements from President Trump such as: "There will be flexibility on tariffs, but basically it's reciprocal…  I will be speaking to Chinese President Xi… May give a lot of countries breaks on reciprocal tariffs."

According to The Wall Street Journal the "White House Narrows April 2 Tariffs," signifying the opportunity(ies) to avoid or negotiate potential Tariff implementation. As the broader Markets seek peak uncertainty, some institutionals are poised to take advantage of the Market rebound and bounce over the near-term.

Consumer Slowing, but not Failing:

• U.S consumers aren't happy, but executives don't share their gloom

• Businesses are more "wait and see" versus "wait and worry"

• Institutions, largely anticipating CapEx hiring growth recovery and broadening this year

Chinese Support from China Premier:

• China Premier is now courting Foreign Investors

• Highlights China's recent consumption initiatives

• Vows to open more sectors to foreign investors

• Tout's preparations for possible unexpected shocks

• Beijing pledges greater market access as top global CEOs gather at the China Development Forum

Some of the Attending U.S. CEOs at the China Development Forum:

Solus Alternative Asset Management, Chief Strategist: "Markets captured by tariffs but worst likely won't be implemented… Decline from January CPI to Fed meeting has reset expectations… Don't think economy is materially slowing."

Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell: "Economy is strong overall… Labor market conditions are solid… Recent indications point to moderation in consumer spending."

+The Move to Physical AI. AI-chip giant Nvidia unveiled new AI Chips and Software last week. The top-dog at Nvidia showcased that AI will transition through "Agentic AI" to "Physical AI." See Chart2. One of the primary differences with Physical AI is the "AI brain" will be able to physically touch our world.

AI Strong Points:

• Astonishing data center CapEx growth.

• New data center operating system dynamo

• Very bullish on robotics

Potential for Magnificent Seven to lead short-term leg higher:

• Stronger Seasonals

• Falling Dollar

• Falling 10-year yield

• Oversold Sentiment and Positioning

• Month and Quarter-end flows

Morgan Stanley's S&P 500 Price Target for Year-End 2025: 6,500

Private Equity on the Rise. So far in Q1 2025, there have been 11 Startups that sold for over $1 Billion (~$54.5 Billion in Sales) -also known in the VC and PE venacular as "Unicorns." This is in stark contrast to Q1 2024 with only 2 Unicorns (~$3.2 Billion in Sales).

Reasons for Private Equity Inflows:

• Market volatility a risk for early-stage companies

• No rush for startups to go public

• Private market deals seen as a safer route

• Access to capital through secondary markets.

Carson Group Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick: "A major March low could very well be in place… One big positive sign was the incredible buying thrust on Friday… Back-to-back 90% advancing issues on the S&P 500 is quite [favorable.]"

Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Equity Strategist and CIO, Mike Wilson: "Sees rotation back to U.S…. Recent dollar weakness should help earnings… Mag 7 to play key role upside…"

NVIDIA Founder and CEO, Jensen Huang: "AI is going through an inflection point… AI is the operating system for every industry moving forward… Tariff impact will not be meaningful in the near term… We are going to be the foundation for the world…

Headwinds:

-Consumer Uncertainty. The U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index remains near historic all-time highs (ex. 2020). See Chart3. This signals a larger division between the bullish and the bearish sentiments for 2025. Homebuilding giant KB Homes missed on Earnings and lowered full-year guidance on softer demand and a cautious consumer -losing over ~8% initially after the Earnings Report.

Consumer Rates Then and Now

11 MAR 2022 vs 14 MAR 2025

FedEx Forecast. Shipping leader FedEx lowered guidance only including "currently implemented tariffs." FedEx's average freight pounds per day dropped ~-63% year-over-year. According to FedEx's CFO, John Dietrich: "Our revised earnings outlook reflects continued weakness and uncertainty in the U.S. industrial economy, which is constraining demand for our business-to-business services."

Loop Capital [View on FedEx]: "FedEx is a really bad recession stock because thin Express margins amplify the earnings hit whenever there's pressure on the top line. It's not one you want to own if things go south."

KB Home CEO, Jeffrey Mezger: "Consumers are working through affordability concerns and uncertainties related to macroeconomic and geopolitical issues, which are causing them to move slowly in their home buying decisions."

Northern Trust Chief Economist, Carl Tannenbaum: "We have lowered our growth call for this year and raised inflation… Projecting one cut from the Fed this year, but not until the third quarter… Still near full employment, so there is no urgency for the Fed to ease."

Parametric's Nisha Patel: "Based on the current macro environment, we recommend adding duration to investment-grade [bonds]… Bonds at these yield levels provide a good hedge against risk assets, which may see more correction as the market tries to interpret the impact of tariffs on long-term growth."

-Trump Tariff Turbulence. President Trump announces a secondary Tariff on Venezuela -as well as mixed messages on which countries will get Tariffs and how much.

According to the National Association of Homebuilders, the proposed Tariffs will add an estimated ~$10,000 to the price of a new home -due to the Lumber, Steel and Aluminum Tariff impact.

According to the White House [on sectoral Tariffs]: "May happen or may not. no final decisions [have] been made as far as sectoral being tacked onto reciprocal…"

U.S. President Trump: "Any country that purchases Oil and/or Gas from Venezuela will be forced to pay a Tariff of 25% to the United States on any Trade they do with our country. All documentation will be signed and registered, and the Tariff will take place on April 2nd, 2025 Liberation Day in America."

Bank of Canada on Tariffs: "Monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war. What it can and must do is ensure that higher prices do not lead to ongoing inflation."

Morgan Stanley House View: "The real slowdown has yet to show up in the hard data. Our equity strategists also caution about further risks to earnings downgrades. We think there is more bad news to come for the U.S. economy as substantial shifts in policy wend their way through the economy."

Sentiment. Investor Sentiment ending 19 MAR 25:

Stifel Managing Director and Chief Equity Strategist: "…We see U.S. economic growth fading and inflation proving sticky/picking up again in the second half of 2025, triggering at the same time a double dip later in the second half of 2025 after this powerful S&P 500 one-half retrace to about $5850 in the near term…"

Barclay's on Powell's Speech: "In our view, his tone seemed overly confident, failing to give a full sense of the potential policy dilemma that appears to be taking shape for the Fed. The intention to wait to see how these evolve in no way resolves the risks, instead underscoring risks that the committee will be caught flat-footed again if perceived transitory price pressures give way to more persistent ones, as in the aftermath of the pandemic."

SPX Technicals.

Macro Data

The combination of accommodative monetary policy and potential tariff resolution potential creates a unique 'Trump put' and 'Fed put' dynamic. This opens a door to a support mechanism that could drive a strong equity rebound once clarity around tariffs shows up.

Question of the Week:

When will the U.S. Tariffs be retracted? 2025? 2026? Or, beyond?

Disciplined Alpha,

MFA

**All of the above Funds are CLOSED to the public. These proprietary Hedge Fund Updates are for informational purposes only. Complex Derivatives, Futures, Algorithmic Trading can involve significant risks. Our past performance does not guarantee your future results. Always do your own due diligence, research and suitability before investing or trading.

Happy Tuesday!

18 MAR 25

Headwinds or Tailwinds Update (HoT Weeklies): 25w12**: Fund Updates + Market Outlook + Question of the Week:

CWA Managed Funds: 

Carbonwolf Alpha, Fund Alpha Performance:

2023 = +167%

2024 = +102%

2025 YTD = +26.36%

Major Indices:

2025 YTD Performance:

QALM = Quantitative Algorithmic Leveraged Momentum

Winners and Losers Random ~3 QALM Trades

Observations:

Tailwinds:

+Germany vs. America. German stocks powered higher last Friday after German lawmakers reportedly came closer to agreeing on reforming the country's so-called debt brake rule. Media reports said Germany's likely next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, had won support from the Greens party to hike public borrowing to allow an increase in defense spending. The motion requires a change to the German Constitution needs two-thirds of the lawmakers to agree. The Bundestag will meet Tuesday to vote on the debt reform.

Germany's parliamentary budget committee on Sunday approved plans for the massive increase in state borrowing to bolster defense and revive economic growth. The bill will include a €500 billion ($540 Billion) fund for infrastructure and changes to borrowing rules.

Investors have been optimistic about Germany's fiscal reset plan and have poured money into European stocks, sending the pancontinental stocks up by more than ~+7% this year so far. Consequently, Germany's DAX has commensurately gained more than ~+15% year-to-date -further Euro stocks in general have been outperforming compared with the S&P 500's ~4% decline. See Chart1.

Potential Short-Term Tactical Positions:

• International value stocks

• European Banks

• International healthcare and industrial names

America. U.S. stocks have been in a bull market for more than two years with the S&P 500 rising more than 20% in both 2024 and 2023. In contrast, the S&P 500 has fallen in 2025 by ~4.5% year-to-date. Valuations are less compelling than in 2024, but still reasonable. The overarching demand trends remain resilient, all albeit slowing.

Annex Wealth Chief Economist, Brian Jacobsen: "Underlying private sector strength is good enough to skirt recession… Tariffs could end up being a lot more sizzle than steak… Fade the fear: treat this more like a correction than a bear market."

Bernstein Private Wealth Management House View: "Investors have historically done well to buy the stock [NVDA] at 25x or lower (with an average 150% next-year return with relatively limited downside)."

Yardeni Research Founder, Ed Yardeni: "The Bulls still believe that Donald Trump is using tariffs as a bargaining tool to negotiate lower tariffs with America's major trading partners. Some of them predict that if it's not the case, then Trump will have to back off in response to political pressure to do so from lots of constituents that stand to be harmed in a trade war…

The economy is clearly being stress-tested by the turmoil unleashed by Trump's tariff campaign and rapid-fire cuts in federal payrolls… Rapid corrections in the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are effectively saying that stock market vigilantes are giving the administration a thumbs down…

These vigilantes could send stock market prices tumbling into bear territory." Yardeni continued: "The negative wealth effect could cause a self-fulfilling recession."

+Dr. Copper. Gold is enjoying a record run this year (See Chart2), but it's not the only one -copper is rising as well. Copper prices have taken off, gaining more than ~20% in 2025 to just under $5 per pound in New York and outpacing gold's ~14% year-to-date gain. Copper is also known as "Dr. Copper" The understanding is that the conductive metal has the equivalent of a Ph.D. in economics since rising copper prices are frequently a sign of growing industrial and consumer demand for autos, building materials, cell phones, and numerous other products that have copper in them.

Last month, the White House launched an investigation "into how copper imports threaten America's national security and economic stability." Trump emphasized the investigation by saying in his address to a joint session of Congress that he was planning to impose a 25% tariff on copper, along with aluminum, steel, and lumber.

Metals Tariff 2018 Impact on Manufacturing Jobs:

• +0.3% benefit to producers

• -1.1% hit due to rising input costs

• -0.7% hit due to retaliation

Net impact: -1.4% hit to sector

TD Securities Senior Commodity Strategist, Ryan McKay: "Copper's rally could very well still have some legs and remain broadly insulated from the current macro risk-off sentiment."

Ned Davis Research House View: "Inventories at all three exchanges appear to show stockpiling ahead of potential tariffs… has not spooked the copper market… Additional sharp inventory builds cause for concern [that] may mute a response once tariffs are announced officially… Given rising concerns over global economic growth, we maintain our neutral view on copper."

UBS House View: "The medium-term outlook for copper is compelling due to electrification and supply challenges."

Headwinds:

-Consumer Sentiment Weakening. March Homebuilder sentiment fell to the lowest level in seven months, down 3 points to 39. The drop in sentiment was reflected via the 29% of builders who cut prices in March versus the 26% in February. Consumer Sentiment also declined broadly across income groups. See Chart3.

Homebuilder Sentiment (March):

Regional Breakdown of Builder Sentiment

Notable Companies Mentioning Consumer Uncertainty:

Dollar General: "The trade-down is back, both the mid- and upper-end trade-down, and as we moved into Q4, seems to be accelerating."

Dick's Sporting Goods Chairman, Edward Stack: "We had a great fourth quarter, but nobody's guiding above consensus. And it's kind of silly to guide above consensus, the world is too uncertain out there right now."

Bank of America House View: "It hasn't felt like the underlying [consumer] health is being questioned at this stage. Rather, distractions are adding up, there's reason for future unease/uncertainty, and some risks to the typically immune upper-income consumer."

-Policy Uncertainty. The recent multi-week sell-off wiped out ~$2.7 Trillion in value from the Megatechs through last Friday -with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 posting their 6th negative week in 7. A strange confluence of events, indeed. According to a recent Bank of America March Global Fund Manager Survey: "Bottom line: second-biggest drop in global growth expectations ever, biggest drop in US equity allocations ever, biggest jump in cash allocations since March 2020; stagflation, trade war, end of US exceptionalism drives 'bull crash' in FMS ("Fund Manager Survey") sentiment." See Chart4.

Iranian Oil Sanctions. The Iranian Supreme Leader rejected President Trump's letter. Whether we are headed for a military confrontation as Iran continues to press ahead, remains unclear. Likely scenarios for Iran in the next couple of months: it makes a deal, gets a bomb, or is bombed.

More Potential Tariffs. President Trump threatens Europe with retaliatory 200% Tariffs on European Wine, French Champagne and Spirits. Additionally, the estimated effect of the cumulative tariffs on a the cost of a new home is ~$9,200 per home.

Barclays House View on a 'Trump Put': "…inclined to believe the President and Treasury Secretary Bessent when talking down the 'Trump put,' and we expect that markets are likely to play second fiddle to primary policy goals until significant progress on the latter is achieved…"

Goldman Sachs CEO, David Solomon: "Many CEOs I engage with are evaluating the potential impact on their top and bottom lines, and as a result, we are seeing some of our corporate clients acting more cautiously until they have more clarity… Given the expected change in the regulatory environment, the appetite for deal-making has increased, and that could spur further capital markets activity in 2025."

Citi Wealth Management CIO, Kate Moore: "Forecasts for double-digit EPS growth look much too high. Expect downward revisions… Earnings impact of tariffs will be meaningful for companies around the world."

Sentiment. Investor Sentiment ending 12 MAR 25:

Haverford Trust VP and Director of Fixed Income, John Donaldson: "The degree of policy volatility is unprecedented. The Fed is very model-dependent, and it is very hard to model based upon moving targets."

T. Rowe Price CIO, Sebastien Page: "Early signs that growth is slowing down… Valuations are high, and the Market is nervous that their AI CapEx is rising above their free cash flows… The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is at an all-time high, it just surpassed COVID levels."

SPX Technicals.

Macro Data

Volatility is retreating after relentless selling last week as the VIX is starting a downward trend. There is likely more volatility to work through. However, this highly anticipated MAG7 repricing could be an opportunity to buy for the near-term or temporary bounce. Institutionals will likely be sensitized by the time we get to the China trade tariffs, but that will be another volatile event to contend with.

Fed Decision tomorrow. Chief Powell's guide will be key insight under what circumstances the economy and the Markets will be considered under pressure from Fed Reserve Macro perspective.

Question of the Week:

Will European stocks (STOXX 600) outperform U.S. Stocks (S&P 500) in 2025?

Disciplined Alpha,

MFA

**All of the above Funds are CLOSED to the public. These proprietary Hedge Fund Updates are for informational purposes only. Complex Derivatives, Futures, Algorithmic Trading can involve significant risks. Our past performance does not guarantee your future results. Always do your own due diligence, research and suitability before investing or trading.

Happy Tuesday!

12 MAR 25

Headwinds or Tailwinds Update (HoT Weeklies): 25w11**: Fund Updates + Market Outlook + Question of the Week:

CWA Managed Funds: 

Carbonwolf Alpha, Fund Alpha Performance:

2023 = +167%

2024 = +102%

2025 YTD = +25.17%

Major Indices:

2025 YTD Performance:

QALM = Quantitative Algorithmic Leveraged Momentum

Winners and Losers Random ~3 QALM Trades

Observations:

Tailwinds:

+The Euro edge. Analysts are getting excited about Euro stocks. HSBC gave a double upgrade of Europe stocks (excluding the UK) to overweight from underweight while downgrading the US to neutral. The HSBC team said that the proposed German constitutional change to go around the country's debt brake is likely to succeed, which they could say can help sustain the momentum in European stocks. If the German package succeeds, it will open the door for other countries to follow. The STOXX Europe 600 outperforming the S&P 500 since late January. See Chart1.

European Markets' Outperformance

HSBC Head of Emerging Markets and Global Equity Strategist, Alastair Pinder: "What we underestimated was how the U.S.'s wavering support for NATO and Ukraine would trigger a watershed moment for the Eurozone, with Germany expected to also follow through with sizable fiscal stimulus."

+Resilient Key Retail Earnings Reports. Despite the recent sell-offs, key retail earnings reports have been strong. Spending patterns of younger men and women are still decent, however slowing. See Chart2.

Key Retail Earnings Reports.

Mastercard Economics Institute Chief Economist, Michelle Meyer: "Consumer fundamentals remain favorable… Policy changes yet to show up significantly in the economy… Clear retail sales data expected in early spring."

Gabelli Funds Portfolio Manager, John Belton: "We are following the fundamentals, which still seem strong but are always subject to change… The longer policy uncertainty continues, the more likely it spills into the real economy… Many names are approaching attractive valuations now, but it does not feel like we've had full capitulation yet."

Federal Reserve Chief, Jerome Powell: "US economy in 'good place' despite elevated levels of uncertainty… Fed can ease if labor market weakens unexpectedly… Fed well-positioned to wait for greater clarity… We very much intend to complete Basil III Endgame."

BTIG Chief Market Technician, Jonathan Krinsky: "Oversold can always get more oversold, but if you were hoping for an entry point when markets were 6-9% higher, this is your chance."

Headwinds:

-Recession Odds Increasing. The United States saw an 11% decline in new job postings, mirroring global contractions. Retail and government services are now facing hiring slumps. This underscores a cautious approach by employers balancing selective hiring against inflation and rising salary demands. Job cuts surge from DOGE mandate -highest monthly total since July 2020.

DOGE Job Losses -source: Evercore ISI

Tesla's Tough Times:

• On pace for longest weekly losing streak ever

• Stock has lost ~38% of its value since start of Trump Administration

• Lost roughly ~$500 Billion in Market Cap since 20 January

Current Layoffs by Sector -source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas Report (See Chart2):

Megatech Off-Course

CNBC Survey of Recession Odds

Evercore ISI House View: "DOGE-related uncertainty over contracts and grants (could have) an additional paralyzing effect on hiring at employers exposed to these funding sources or in need of regulatory approvals from agencies that are themselves paralyzed by DOGE review."

White House Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt: "We are in a period of economic transition. We are in a period of transition from the mess that was created under Joe Biden in the previous administration."

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: "There's no 'put.' The Trump 'call' on the upside is, if we have good policies, then the markets will go up."

-Trade War Escalation. It appears that all of America's major trade partners are willing and able to ratchet up the retaliation responses. For example, Doug Ford, Premier of Ontario Canada wrote: "Today I wrote to the governors, senators, and congressmen and women from New York, Michigan, and Minnesota putting them on notice that Ontario is prepared to add a 25% surcharge to the electricity we export to their states if President Trump's tariffs remain in place… If we have to, we won't hesitate to increase the charges or shut the electricity off completely."

U.S. Electricity via Canada in 2024

Minnesota Department of Commerce on Tariff Impact on Energy: "We are confident we will be able to keep the lights on, but potentially at much higher cost for energy bills." With average electricity bills on the rise since 2020, a reduction in power could be a significant setback for the affected U.S. regions. See Chart3.

Major Averages down since start of Trump Administration with the NASDAQ, and the Russell 2000 index officially in correction territory. See Chart4.

Major Retailers in their respective Earnings Calls largely saying "Tariffs will mean higher prices for consumers." Luxury Retailers also bracing on Tariff Fears.

Ad Industry leaders Madison and Wall's Brian Wieser: "…the potential for disruption in the auto industry -and thus advertising -remains a real risk…"

Ross CEO, Barbara Rentler: "The softness we are currently seeing is primarily due to macro pressures impacting consumer confidence, resulting in a pullback and discretionary spending. We believe that some of the recent challenges we are seeing could be transitory."

Sentiment. Investor Sentiment ending 05 MAR 25:

Roth Capital Partners Chief Economist and Macrostrategist, Michael Darda: "Public policy that seeks to mimic the McKinley Tariff of 1890-1894 or Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 is nothing short of a suicide mission… Labor and equity markets both failed during these periods."

SPX Technicals.

Macro Data

Nvidia is in Bear Market territory, greater than 25% lower from its record close -shedding ~$1 Trillion in Market Cap since 06 January. The NASDAQ is now in correction territory down ~11% from its high. Hedge Funds seem to be deleveraging, as the Magnificent 7 Megatech stocks collectively enter correction territory.

As forecasted in a previous weekly update, the SPX did in fact test its 200-DMA and it is currently failing. Without a Fed or Trump 'put' markets may continue to drift lower. Fed may have an opportunity to soothe the markets, but it will likely be counter-balanced by Tariff policies at that point in time. CPI and PPI prints out this week -an increasing inflation print could give reason to institutionals to move more to risk-off.

Question of the Week:

Will Europe and China take advantage of the recent U.S. Market weakness?

Disciplined Alpha,

MFA

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