Carbonwolf Alpha

Carbonwolf Alpha

Headwinds or Tailwinds ("HoT") Weekly Market Updates 2024

01 HoT 24w15

Fund Performance and Recent Trades


Happy Tuesday!


09 APR 24


Headwinds or Tailwinds Update (HoT Weeklies): 24w15**: Fund Updates + Market Outlook + Question of the Week:


Carbonwolf Alpha, Fund Alpha: 

$QALM #Fund Alpha (Futures Algo Scalping) 2024 YTD Stats:

Algo Krakens: Long, Current Win Rate: 54.69%

Algo Krakens: Short, Current Win Rate: 61.90%

Total Portfolio Performance for 2023: +167%

Total Portfolio Performance 2024 YTD:  +35.74%

Major Indices: 2024 YTD: $DJI ~+3.17%; SPX ~+9.23%; COMP ~+8.63%; GDOW ~+6.75%; /CL $85.32

QALM = Quantitative Algorithmic Leveraged Momentum

TD = Trading Days

Most Recent ~3 Trades:

240409 SPX, Short +850.0% (Closed +4TD, Green Dragon Wing Kraken)

240408 /NQ, Long -47.5% (Closed +0TD)

240405 /NQ, Long +700.0% (Closed +0TD)

240404 /NQ, Long -80.5% (Closed +0TD)


$Amarok #Fund One: (Derivatives), YTD:

2023 Closed Trade Win Rate: 2/2, 100%

Total Portfolio Performance for 2023:

N/A, temporarily closed.



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Market Observations

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Observations:

Tailwinds:

+Federal Funds. Taiwan Semiconductor "TSMC" gets $11.6 Billion in Grants and Loans from Chips Act. $50 million to train and develop local workers in Arizona. TSMC has already created ~25,000 jobs and has attracted 14 semiconductor suppliers for the state. Supports investment of $65 Billion in 3 greenfield labs in Phoenix. Goal is to manufacture the world's most advanced semiconductors and support 5G/6G communications as well as high-performance computing. U.S. currently manufactures ~12% of world's semiconductors and represents ~34% of the world's demand. -Source: McKinsey. Bloom Energy "BE" to receive up to $75 Million in Federal Tax Credits to expand Fremont, CA Plant

+March Jobs. March Nonfarm payrolls stronger than expected with +303,000 vs. +200,000 estimated. Unemployment Rate 3.8% vs. 3.9% previous; Average hourly workweek +4.1% vs. +4.3% previous; Labor Force Participation 62.7% vs. 62.5%; Global Venture Capital Deal Activity for Robotics and Drones trending lower since 2021 in favor of Artificial Intelligence.


Headwinds:

-Gold and Black Gold. Gold hits fresh highs as Central Banks increase hoarding. June Gold Comex "/GC" ~$2,370 per troy ounce. Costco sells ~$200,000,000 in physical gold bars online monthly for multiple months. May Oil Futures "/CL" ~$85.61 per barrel. Citadel via Financial Times: "Global oil market likely to be extremely tight." U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve at lowest levels since ~1985. Crude oil continues to push higher due to Middle East turmoil. Energy SPDR Index "XLE" ~+14.55% over last year. Rally started prior to Middle East escalations.

-Q1 Executive Insider Selling and Fed Hawks. Amount of Stock Sold in Q1 2024: Jeff Bezos, Amazon "AMZN" ~$8.5 Billion; Andy Jassy, AMZN ~$21 Million; Mark Zuckerberg, META ~$135 Million; Peter Thiel, Palantir ("PLTR") ~$175 Million; Frank Slootman, Snowflake ("SNOW") ~$69 Million. Ratio of inside sellers increasing dramatically recently. See chart above. Fed Governors Neel Kashkari, Christopher Waller, Lorie Logan, Michelle Bowman and Raphael Bostic reducing their Fed Rate Cut Outlook to "One cut, maybe none."


Sentiment. Investor Sentiment ending 03 APR 24 : Bullish: ~47.3%, Neutral: ~30.5%, Bearish: ~22.2%. JP Morgan Chief Jamie Dimon: "We are prepared for a very broad range of interest rates, from 2% to 8%... Markets seem to be pricing in at a 70% to 80% chance of a soft landing -modest growth along with declining inflation and interest rates. I believe the odds are a lot lower… Rates could surge as national debt rises…" "If long-end rates go up over 6% and this increase is accompanied by a recession, there will be plenty of stress -not just in the banking system but with leveraged companies and others." "Small changes in interest rates today may have less impact on inflation in the future than many people believe."


SPX Technicals. Close: 5,209.91. VIX: +14.98 = “Neutral.” Fear/Greed Index: 61, Greed. Key support level to stay above this week is ~5179 area. Apple "AAPL" breaking below 50-DMA and 200-DMA. Energy prices are one of the most important economic data points and they continue to push higher. Headline CPI report released tomorrow. Earnings Season to kick off on Friday with Banks. Investors likely to punish companies for double misses versus counter moves based on future company narratives.


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Question of the Week:

Question of the Week:

Will the price of Gold break above $2,500 per troy ounce this year? Why? Or, why not?


Disciplined Alpha,

MFA

**These two CLOSED proprietary Hedge Fund Updates are for informational purposes only. Our past performance does not guarantee your future results. Always do your own due diligence, research and suitability before investing or trading.

**These two CLOSED proprietary Hedge Fund Updates are for informational purposes only. Our past performance does not guarantee your future results. Always do your own due diligence, research and suitability before investing or trading.
If you have any questions or concerns about these Terms, please contact us at gobig@carbonwolfenergy.com

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