Carbonwolf Alpha

Carbonwolf Alpha

Headwinds or Tailwinds ("HoT") Weekly Market Updates 2024

01 HoT 24w21

Fund Performance and Recent Trades



Happy Tuesday!

21 MAY 24

Headwinds or Tailwinds Update (HoT Weeklies): 24w21**: Fund Updates + Market Outlook + Question of the Week:


>>>This will be the last issue before our Summer Think Weeks. The HoT Weeklies will return in mid-July. Thank you for your positive feedback and continuing support. Have a fantastic Summer Start!<<<


Carbonwolf Alpha, Fund Alpha: 

$QALM #Fund Alpha (Futures Algo Scalping) 2024 YTD Stats:

Algo Krakens: Long, Current Win Rate: 51.63%

Algo Krakens: Short, Current Win Rate: 66.67%

Total Portfolio Performance for 2023: +167%

Total Portfolio Performance 2024 YTD:  +31.40%

(Risk Level 2: "Futures Options Algo Scalping" -previously unlocked at 30%+ YTD)

Major Indices:

2024 YTD:

$DJI ~+5.79%;

SPX ~+11.56%;

COMP ~+12.13%;

GDOW ~+9.19%;

/CL $78.17

QALM = Quantitative Algorithmic Leveraged Momentum

TD = Trading Days

Random Recent ~3 Trades:

240521 /NQ, Long, Win: +80.0% (Intraday: Closed, +0TD)

240520 SPX, Long, Open: +3.45% (Swing: Open, +1TD)

240520 /NQ, Long, Loss: -60% (Intraday: Closed, +0TD)


$Amarok #Amarok II: (Derivatives), YTD:

2023 Closed Trade Win Rate: 2/2, 100%

Total Portfolio Performance for 2024:

*Reopening Soon under Amarok II*



Image

Market Observations

Image




Observations:

Tailwinds:

+NVIDIA and the "Everything Rally." Wall Street Traders fixed on NVDA earnings on Wednesday -as the de facto "canary" for the AI-stock movement. Institutional Traders expect a large beat and raised guidance in upcoming report. They expect this to generate a small positive reaction from stock after earnings. Forecasts 3-4x growth in the next 3-4 years despite multiple drawdowns. Deutsche Bank raises SPX Year-end target to $5,500. Deutsche Bank: "Earning cycle has plenty of legs… Overweight Financials, Consumer Cyclicals and Materials."


Wall Street Q1 Expectations for NVDA

Earnings per share:

$5.59

Revenues:

$24.65

Buy Rated:

~88%

Hold Rated:

~12%

Sell Rated:

0%

Average Price Target:

~$1,039 per share


NVDA earnings report is likely to be the most impactful report for the S&P 500. It's responsible for 1/3 of the S&P 500's Q1 earning growth. Earnings expected to be 5 times greater than last year. Revenues poised to more than triple from a year ago.


The Everything Rally 6-Month Gains

S&P 500 ("SPX")

~+17%

Russell 2000 ("RTY")

~+16%

Dow Jones ("$DJI")

~+14%

Copper

~+32%

Silver

~+36%

Gold

~+22%

Bitcoin

~+78%


+Record Territory. Dow Jones closes above $40,000 for first time last week. S&P 500 and Nasdaq also hit record highs last week. See Chart. BlackRock's Senior Managing Director and CIO, Rick Rieder (~$2.4 Trillion AUM): "Would hold equities for next couple of years… If rates stay where they are, the equity market can move a lot… Equity Market Technicals have been impressive."


Performance since April lows:

Technology

~+12.5%

Utilities

~+10.5%

Real Estate

~+8.5%

Comm. Service

~+5.75%

Nasdaq

~+9.5%

Russell 2000

~+8%

S&P 500

~+7%

Dow Jones

~+5%


Earnings Growth Year-over-Year Expectations

Q1 2024 Actual

5.8%

Q2 2024 Estimated

10.8%

Q3 2024 Estimated

8.5%

Q4 2024 Estimated

14.6%

Q1 2025 Estimated

15.3%

Q2 2025 Estimated

13.8%



Headwinds:

-LEI, Sentiment and Divergence. The U.S. Leading Economic Index ("LEI") was worse than expected -0.6% vs -0.3% estimated last week. The LEI's April decline was driven by consumer sentiment, new orders, the negative yield spread and building permits. The divergence between Real GDP YoY %Change and LEI YoY %Change is the largest ever since before 2000 -without experiencing a recession. See Chart. Housing starts weaker, lowest level in nearly 4 years.


-Geopolitics. Russia starts "Nuclear Exercises" today. Iran President and Foreign Minister along with other ranking officials killed in mysterious helicopter crash. Iran in shock and outrage. Iran's Supreme Leader will now control succession for president. However, a family succession for Supreme Leader would delegitimize the regime. Khomeini and Khamenei always argued that hereditary rule under the shah was illegitimate. Israel's Netanyahu: "U.S. threat to withhold weapons is a consideration in Rafah, but not deciding factor…" Slovak Prime Minister Fico shot in assassination attempt -previously in life-threatening condition, improving slightly but still in serious condition.


Sentiment. Investor Sentiment ending 15 MAY 24: Bullish: ~40.9%, Neutral: ~35.9%, Bearish: ~23.3%. JP Morgan Chief, Jamie Dimon: "I'm cautiously pessimistic…" Fed Reserve Governor Waller: "In the absence of a significant weakening in the labor market, I need to see several more months of good inflation data before I would be comfortable supporting an easing in the stance of monetary policy."


SPX Technicals. Close: 5,321.41. VIX: +11.86 = “Neutral.” Fear/Greed Index: 63, Greed. Key support level to stay above this week is ~5225. Gold Comex ("/GC") technicals topping out. Equities watching for Nvidia's all-important earnings report tomorrow after the bell. VIX below 13 and near 2024 lows, suggesting grind higher behavior -absent a large catalyst expanding volatility unexpectedly.


w21_trillion.png
Image


Question of the Week:


Question of the Week:

Will Nvidia disappoint tomorrow? Or, will it be the next excuse for the "Everything Rally" to continue?


Disciplined Alpha,

MFA


**These two CLOSED proprietary Hedge Fund Updates are for informational purposes only. Our past performance does not guarantee your future results. Always do your own due diligence, research and suitability before investing or trading.

**These two CLOSED proprietary Hedge Fund Updates are for informational purposes only. Our past performance does not guarantee your future results. Always do your own due diligence, research and suitability before investing or trading.
If you have any questions or concerns about these Terms, please contact us at gobig@carbonwolfenergy.com

Carbonwolf Energy. We Fund World Changers.

Pages

Contact us

Send Non-NDA Project Decks to: GoBig@Carbonwolfenergy.com

General Inquiries to:
Hello@Carbonwolfenergy.com

Investor Inquiries to:
Investors@Carbonwolfenergy.com

Please fill the required field.